Resolving the slip-rate inconsistency of the northern Dead Sea fault.

Reported fault slip rates, a key quantity for earthquake hazard and risk analyses, have been inconsistent for the northern Dead Sea fault (DSF). Studies of offset geological and archeological structures suggest a slip rate of 4 to 6 millimeters per year, consistent with the southern DSF, whereas geodetic slip-rate estimates are only 2 to 3 millimeters per year. To resolve this inconsistency and overcome limited access to the northern DSF in Syria, we here use burst-overlap interferometric time-series analysis of satellite radar images to provide an independent slip-rate estimate of ~2.8 millimeters per year. We also show that the high geologic slip rate could, by chance, be inflated by earthquake clustering and suggest that the slip-rate decrease from the southern to northern DSF can be explained by splay faults and diffuse offshore deformation. These results suggest a microplate west of the northern DSF and a lower earthquake hazard for that part of the fault.

Combining thermal, tri-stereo optical and bi-static InSAR satellite imagery for lava volume estimates: the 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption, La Palma.

Determining outline, volume and effusion rate during an effusive volcanic eruption is crucial as it is a major controlling factor of the lava flow lengths, the prospective duration and hence the associated hazards. We present for the first time a multi-sensor thermal-and-topographic satellite data analysis for estimating lava effusion rates and volume. At the 2021 lava field of Cumbre Vieja, La Palma, we combine VIIRS + MODIS thermal data-based effusion rate estimates with DSMs analysis derived from optical tri-stereo Pléiades and TanDEM-X bi-static SAR-data. This multi-sensor-approach allows to overcome limitations of single-methodology-studies and to achieve both, high-frequent observation of the relative short-term effusion rate trends and precise total volume estimates. We find a final subaerial-lava volume of [Formula: see text] with a MOR of 28.8 ± 1.4 m3/s. We identify an initially sharp eruption-rate-peak, followed by a gradually decreasing trend, interrupted by two short-lived-peaks in mid/end November. High eruption rate accompanied by weak seismicity was observed during the early stages of the eruption, while during later stage the lava effusion trend coincides with seismicity. This article demonstrates the geophysical monitoring of eruption rate fluctuations, that allows to speculate about changes of an underlying pathway during the 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption.

Magmatic plumbing and dynamic evolution of the 2021 La Palma eruption.

The 2021 volcanic eruption at La Palma, Canary Islands, was the island's most voluminous historical eruption. Little is known about this volcano's feeding system. During the eruption, seismicity was distributed in two clusters at ~10-14 km and ~33-39 km depth, separated by an aseismic zone. This gap coincides with the location of weak seismic swarms in 2017-2021 and where petrological data have implied pre-eruptive magma storage. Here we use seismological methods to understand the seismic response to magma transfer, with 8,488 hypocentral relocations resolving small-scale seismogenic structures, and 156 moment tensors identifying stress heterogeneities and principal axes flips. Results suggest a long-lasting preparatory stage with the progressive destabilisation of an intermediate, mushy reservoir, and a co-eruptive stage with seismicity controlled by the drainage and interplay of two localised reservoirs. Our study provides new insights into the plumbing system that will improve the monitoring of future eruptions in the island.

Monitoring microseismicity of the Hengill Geothermal Field in Iceland.

Induced seismicity is one of the main factors that reduces societal acceptance of deep geothermal energy exploitation activities, and felt earthquakes are the main reason for closure of geothermal projects. Implementing innovative tools for real-time monitoring and forecasting of induced seismicity was one of the aims of the recently completed COSEISMIQ project. Within this project, a temporary seismic network was deployed in the Hengill geothermal region in Iceland, the location of the nation's two largest geothermal power plants. In this paper, we release raw continuous seismic waveforms and seismicity catalogues collected and prepared during this project. This dataset is particularly valuable since a very dense network was deployed in a seismically active region where thousand of earthquakes occur every year. For this reason, the collected dataset can be used across a broad range of research topics in seismology ranging from the development and testing of new data analysis methods to induced seismicity and seismotectonics studies.

Detection and potential early warning of catastrophic flow events with regional seismic networks.

Early warning is a critical potential tool for mitigating the impacts of large mass wasting and flood events, a major hazard in the Himalaya. We used data from a dense seismic network in Uttarakhand, India, to detect and track a fatal rockslide to mass flow to flood cascade and examine the potential for regional networks to provide early warning for extreme flow events. Detection limits of the 7 February 2021 event depend on the nature of the active process and on the anthropogenic and environmental seismic noise levels at each station. With the existing network, a seismic monitoring system could have detected all event phases from up to 100 kilometers and provided downstream warnings within minutes of event initiation.

Seismicity at the Castor gas reservoir driven by pore pressure diffusion and asperities loading.

The 2013 seismic sequence at the Castor injection platform offshore Spain, including three earthquakes of magnitude 4.1, occurred during the initial filling of a planned Underground Gas Storage facility. The Castor sequence is one of the most important cases of induced seismicity in Europe and a rare example of seismicity induced by gas injection into a depleted oil field. Here we use advanced seismological techniques applied to an enhanced waveform dataset, to resolve the geometry of the faults, develop a greatly enlarged seismicity catalog and record details of the rupture kinematics. The sequence occurred by progressive fault failure and unlocking, with seismicity initially migrating away from the injection points, triggered by pore pressure diffusion, and then back again, breaking larger asperities loaded to higher stress and producing the largest earthquakes. Seismicity occurred almost exclusively on a secondary fault, located below the reservoir, dipping opposite from the reservoir bounding fault.

The 2019-2020 Khalili (Iran) Earthquake Sequence-Anthropogenic Seismicity in the Zagros Simply Folded Belt?

We investigate the origin of a long-lived earthquake cluster in the Fars arc of the Zagros Simply Folded Belt that is colocated with the major Shanul natural gas field. The cluster emerged in January 2019 and initially comprised small events of M n ∼ 3-4. It culminated on 9 June 2020 with a pair of M w 5.4 and 5.7 earthquakes, which was followed by >100 aftershocks. We assess the spatiotemporal evolution of the earthquake sequence using multiple event hypocenter relocations, waveform inversions, and Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements and models. We find that the early part of the sequence is spatially distinct from the 9 June 2020 earthquakes and their aftershocks. Moment tensors, centroid depths, and source parameter uncertainties of 15 of the largest (M n ≥ 4.0) events show that the sequence is dominated by reverse faulting at shallow depths (mostly ≤4 km) within the sedimentary cover. InSAR modeling shows that the M w 5.7 mainshock occurred at depths of 2-8 km with a rupture length and maximum slip of ∼20 km and ∼0.5 m, respectively. Our results suggest that the 2019-2020 Khalili earthquake sequence was likely influenced by operation of the Shanul field, though elevated natural seismicity in the Zagros makes the association difficult to prove. Understanding how to distinguish man-made from natural seismicity is helpful for hazard and risk assessment, notably in the Zagros, which is both seismically active and rich in oil and gas reserves.

Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow.

Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with a collapse of the roof of a crustal magma reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century, and the lack of detailed observations has obscured insight into the mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption. We use multiparameter geophysical and geochemical data to show that the 110-square-kilometer and 65-meter-deep collapse of Bárdarbunga caldera in 2014-2015 was initiated through withdrawal of magma, and lateral migration through a 48-kilometers-long dike, from a 12-kilometers deep reservoir. Interaction between the pressure exerted by the subsiding reservoir roof and the physical properties of the subsurface flow path explain the gradual, near-exponential decline of both collapse rate and the intensity of the 180-day-long eruption.

Automated microseismic event location using Master-Event Waveform Stacking.

Accurate and automated locations of microseismic events are desirable for many seismological and industrial applications. The analysis of microseismicity is particularly challenging because of weak seismic signals with low signal-to-noise ratio. Traditional location approaches rely on automated picking, based on individual seismograms, and make no use of the coherency information between signals at different stations. This strong limitation has been overcome by full-waveform location methods, which exploit the coherency of waveforms at different stations and improve the location robustness even in presence of noise. However, the performance of these methods strongly depend on the accuracy of the adopted velocity model, which is often quite rough; inaccurate models result in large location errors. We present an improved waveform stacking location method based on source-specific station corrections. Our method inherits the advantages of full-waveform location methods while strongly mitigating the dependency on the accuracy of the velocity model. With this approach the influence of an inaccurate velocity model on the results is restricted to the estimation of travel times solely within the seismogenic volume, but not for the entire source-receiver path. We finally successfully applied our new method to a realistic synthetic dataset as well as real data.